When are the RBA minutes and how might they affect AUD/USD?

RBA minutes overview

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Board’s 5th Feb meeting minutes are due at 11:30am Syd/8:30am Sing/HK, 0030 GMT, after the central bank, as widely expected, left the official cash rate at 1.50% at its latest meeting in February, unchanged yet again. The minute statement is less likely to be anything particularly markets moving today as release of quarterly monetary policy statement and speeches from the RBA Governor are already factored in. So, the main focus will stay with how the central bank justifies its cash rate position as "more evenly balanced than previously."

Analysts at Westpac say:

The RBA has “shifted the goalposts” and that has pushed the outright trading ranges higher. While we think they unlikely to cut rates, that will be the underpinning thematic for some time.

While comments from the analysts at Australia and New Zealand banking group explain more downside risks from the event:

“The minutes of the RBA meeting will reveal some of the downside risks that the bank highlighted in its last statement, however its impact will be limited given the recent publication of the SoMP. Of more interest will be the parliamentary testimony of the governor. In particular, his answers to any questions on the impact of credit tightening.”

How could the minutes affect AUD/USD?

Soured risk appetite recently dragged the antipodeans down and can weigh on the AUD/USD if the minutes provide a bearish tint on the economy. The pair may avail immediate trend-line support, at 0.7095, as adjacent rest during the declines towards 0.7055. However, minutes’ refrain to convey any downside risk to the Australian economy might not hesitate fueling the pair in direction to challenge the 0.7160, a break of which could open the door for 0.7200 round-figure to appear on the chart.

Key notes:

AUD/USD calm around 0.7130 ahead of RBA meeting minutes

AUD/USD Technical Analysis: Aussie trading below 0.7130 ahead of RBA

About the RBA minutes

The minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia meetings are published two weeks after the interest rate decision. The minutes give a full account of the policy discussion, including differences of view. They also record the votes of the individual members of the Committee. Generally speaking, if the RBA is hawkish about the inflationary outlook for the economy, then the markets see a higher possibility of a rate increase, and that is positive for the AUD.